Back of House Blog | Resources, Advice, & News

No More Guessing: Optimize Your Menu Based on Sales Data

Written by Jocelyn Hoppa | Oct 13, 2025 1:00:03 PM

In many restaurants, menu changes are guided by intuition or anecdotal feedback from staff and guests. While this approach can work, it can also miss opportunities to maximize profitability or highlight high-performing dishes. 

Today, modern point-of-sale (POS) systems allow you to take a more data-driven approach. Menu engineering using POS data helps you identify what’s working and what’s underperforming, and lets you boost profitability without sacrificing the guest experience.

“The key is to stop guessing,” says Spencer Michiel, technology consultant at Back of House. “Your POS data already tells the story of your menu, you just have to know how to read it.”

 

Laying the Groundwork

Before you can make meaningful menu changes, you need to understand what the numbers are actually telling you. The basics are simple — start with the right data and review it regularly.

 

Focus on the Right Metrics

When it comes to evaluating menu performance, Spencer recommends starting with three core POS metrics: 

  • Sales mix: Shows which items are selling most frequently and how each item contributes to overall revenue.
  • Product mix: Helps you understand the variety and balance of menu items guests are ordering, so you can spot trends and gaps.
  • Food and liquor cost: When paired with an inventory or food cost platform, this reveals how much each item costs to produce and its profitability.

“These numbers form the foundation of your decision-making,” Spencer explains. “They show not only what’s selling but also how those items contribute to your bottom line.”

 

Review Weekly, Not Just Monthly

For best results, operators shouldn’t let that data sit idle. “You should be reviewing it weekly,” Spencer says. “Trends shift fast, and weekly check-ins let you catch changes before they impact your margins.”

 

Don’t Chase Topline Revenue Alone

One common pitfall, Spencer notes, is getting fixated on total revenue. “It’s not just about how much money an item brings in,” he says. “You have to look at what actually ends up as profit after costs — that’s where restaurant data-driven decisions really pay off.”

 

Spotting Strong and Weak Performers

Once you’re reviewing the right metrics consistently, it’s time to dig deeper. POS data can show which items pull their weight, and which might be costing you more than they earn.

 

Look Beyond Bestsellers

POS data can quickly reveal your standout items and your low-performing items. But Spencer cautions against relying solely on bestsellers or food cost percentages.

“Don’t just focus on your top-selling or lowest-cost dishes,” he says. “Look at which items deliver the highest contribution margin,” the sales revenue remaining after subtracting all variable costs associated with the dish. By looking at the dishes that perform best compared to their costs, “That’s where you’ll find your true moneymakers.”

 

Watch for Red Flags

Low-performing items can show up in several ways, and it’s important to read these signals carefully before making decisions:

  • Declining sales: If an item that used to sell well starts dropping consistently, it may no longer appeal to guests, or another change on your menu, such as a new dish that competes with it,  could be affecting its popularity.
  • High waste: Frequent leftovers or spoilage tied to a menu item often indicates overproduction or slow turnover, both of which can eat into profits.
  • Excessive prep time: Dishes that take too long to prepare can slow down service, create bottlenecks in the kitchen, and strain staff during busy periods.
  • Frequent guest modifications: When guests regularly request substitutions, removals, or other tweaks, it could signal that the dish isn’t meeting expectations as written. If everyone says “hold the onions,” maybe the dish shouldn’t have onions on it.

These red flags often mean an item needs attention, whether that’s a price adjustment, a recipe tweak, a simplified preparation, or in some cases, removal from the menu altogether.

 

Profitability and Costs

Understanding profitability requires a deeper look into how costs and sales interact. The right blend of POS and inventory data can reveal where your menu is truly making, or losing, money.

 

Combine POS and Inventory Data

The most powerful menu insights emerge when you combine your POS data with inventory management. 

“You really need both platforms working together,” Spencer says. “Your POS gives you sales data, and your inventory system provides the food cost data. When you pair them, you can see both the food cost percentage and the dollar contribution for every item.”

 

Balance Cost and Contribution

This pairing helps operators optimize their menu based on sales data, not just instinct. 

Spencer points out that some high food-cost items can actually be your most profitable if they drive a strong contribution to the bottom line. “It’s all about understanding the balance between cost and contribution,” he says.

 

Understanding Customer Behavior

Beyond dollars and percentages, POS data can tell a story about your guests — what they prefer, when they order it, and how those patterns evolve over time.

 

Compare Dine-In, Takeout, and Delivery

POS systems also reveal deeper customer behavior trends. By segmenting data by order channel — dine-in, takeout, or delivery — restaurants can see how preferences shift depending on context.

“Maybe your pastas sell great in-house but not for delivery,” Spencer notes. “Or maybe your handhelds outperform online. That’s information you can use to refine packaging, pricing, and promotion.”

 

Track Seasonal Trends

Tracking sales data week to week helps operators spot when certain items surge and adjust features or specials accordingly. Seasonal insights can also reveal when to promote specific items, rotate limited-time offers, or adjust ingredient orders to reduce waste.

For example, a spike in salads and cold beverages during warmer months could inform both menu placement and marketing campaigns, while increased demand for hearty stews or baked goods in winter can guide staffing and prep schedules. 

By paying attention to these patterns, operators can align their menu offerings with guest preferences, maximize sales, and make smarter inventory and staffing decisions throughout the year.

 

Menu Engineering and Design

Once you know which dishes drive the most value, that information can directly influence how your menu looks and feels. This is where true menu engineering using POS data comes into play.

 

Use Data to Guide Visibility and Layout

“You can use the data to decide which items deserve prime real estate on your menu,” Spencer says. “If a high-margin item isn’t selling, maybe it’s buried where guests don’t see it. The data can show you where upsell opportunities are being missed.”

POS insights can help you improve your menu by identifying which dishes should be highlighted on your menu, grouped with complementary items, or moved to the top of sections where guests naturally focus. 

For example, placing high-contribution items near the top of a section, using visual cues like boxes or icons, or featuring them as suggested add-ons can increase visibility and drive incremental sales. 

By combining sales performance with strategic menu design, you can ensure that your most profitable items catch the guest’s eye.

 

Test Before You Commit

Testing new items works best when done in limited runs. 

“A seasonal feature sheet or weekly special gives you a low-risk way to gather data before making anything permanent,” he adds. “If it performs well, that’s your proof to roll it out.”

 

 

Operational Efficiency

POS data doesn’t just inform your menu, it also helps your operations run more smoothly. From kitchen flow to waste reduction, the numbers reveal where processes can improve.

 

Identify Bottlenecks in the Kitchen

When paired with kitchen display system (KDS) analytics, POS data can show which items slow down service or strain the line. By tracking prep times, order flow, and modifications in the KDS while looking at sales and promo data from the POS, operators can pinpoint exactly which dishes create bottlenecks.

“If you’re seeing a lot of promos or voids tied to a specific item, that’s a red flag,” Spencer explains. “It might be too complex or time-consuming during peak hours.”

This combined insight allows you to simplify or rework recipes, adjust staffing, or move certain items to slower periods, ensuring smoother service without compromising menu variety or quality.

 

The Future of Data-Driven Menus

The role of technology in restaurant management is only growing. Emerging tools are making restaurant data-driven decisions faster, smarter, and more precise.

 

Predictive Tech Will Sharpen Insights

Looking ahead, Spencer sees technology continuing to push innovation forward. “AI and predictive analytics are the next evolution,” he says. “They’ll help restaurants forecast demand, anticipate ingredient needs, and even suggest ideal menu pricing based on historical trends.”

For operators, POS data isn’t just a look at what happened, it’s a roadmap for what’s next. By treating data as an everyday decision-making tool, restaurants can stay nimble, profitable, and guest-focused.

“Data doesn’t replace instinct,” Spencer concludes. “It sharpens it. The more you use your POS data, the more confident your menu decisions become.”

 

Put Your POS Data to Work

Even small insights can drive big results. 

Start by reviewing your sales and inventory data weekly, identify your high-contribution items, and test menu tweaks in short runs. Over time, these restaurant data-driven decisions will help you optimize your menu based on sales data, reduce waste, improve profitability, and create a menu that truly works for your guests and your bottom line.

For personalized guidance on how to turn your POS data into actionable menu strategies, consider scheduling a consultation with Spencer or another Back of House consultant. Our team can help you identify opportunities, streamline operations, and make data-driven decisions with confidence.